[wunderlust]

> So we have a conclusion: 'lab leak most likely cause,' and a confidence score: 'low'.

These qualifications seem to me to be in conflict. If there's low confidence about the most likely cause, then does that imply that there's low confidence about every possible cause? Could there be high confidence in the least likely cause? That, too, seems contradictory to me.

[ukoki]

There are only two theories being seriously considered: lab leak, wet market. Therefore I think it is reasonable to expect a probability of at least 90% that it is one of these two theories and not a third theory that no one is discussing. So if we have over 90% confidence that _either_ "lab leak" or "wet market", and we believe that "lab leak" is the _most_ the likely cause, then it follows that we must estimate the lab leak theory to be true with at least 45% probability. Maybe you could say "low confidence" if you're 45-80% sure, and "high confidence" if you're more certain than that.