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by mochomocha 1218 days ago
I think we indeed hit "peak open-source" for AI and there unfortunately won't be as much sharing in the coming years. When the economy is down, people and companies think more in "zero-sum-game". I hope to be proven wrong.
3 comments

The golden age of open-source AI is ahead of us. Open-source AI companies are being launched and funded. High quality, large, labeled data sets have never been more accessible, and scaling law plateaus means there is going to be a lot more momentum on data- and compute-optimization, meaning current SOTA models will start fitting on smaller and smaller hardware, down to commodity hardware.
This. We already had discussions of 'attacks' on models based on public data sets so 'good sets' may soon become the thing to go after ( and suddenly data brokers may really want to up the prices of their sets ). We might actually see more privacy as a result as the data brokers will start charging a premium for clear sets.

Naturally, as predictions go, don't quote me on that. I was wrong before.

Until legislation clamps it down.
At least in the United States, it's well established that code is protected by freedom of speech. https://www.eff.org/press/archives/2008/04/21-40
Yeah I don't expect that to last very long. Once it is discovered you can have an AI army that will tear apart any human force like tissue paper, AI will be classified and regulated as a WMD. They'll amend the Constitution if they have to, or get SCOTUS to do it for them.
Until recently, reproductive rights were well established too. Shit changes, yo.
This is why activist judiciaries inventing rights that plainly are not there (and in fact, supporters at the time understood that this was on shaky ground legally) are dangerous to rely on.

The situation here is not comparable.

This is what everyone needs to watch. It was Stability.ai that spooked OpenAI for disrupting DALLE-2 with a open-source AI model; Stable Diffusion. I am betting they are going to do it again for ChatGPT.

The endgame for this AI race is obvious and when it comes to AI models, open-source ones always disrupt fully closed source AI companies.

But first, we'll see which 'AI companies' will survive the lawsuits, regulations and fierce competition for funding.