[socratic]

I agree that Hollywood is evil, however, is the argument that it has peaked really accurate? ("Hollywood is dying.")

This RFS doesn't really give any statistics (perhaps because it will be up for longer than those statistics will be current). That said, based on a few minutes of Google searching, the average American apparently watches 150 hours of TV per month, and every few years there is a new "biggest grossing film of all time." That doesn't necessarily constitute growth, but it hardly seems like the type of upheaval occurring in the recording industry.

Is this analysis incorrect?

[untog]

and every few years there is a new "biggest grossing film of all time."

That, at least, can be accounted for by inflation: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

Titanic (1997) is the most recent in the top ten (at #6). Avatar is the most recent at #14, and one of only two movies from the 2000s in the top 30. Movie revenue is dropping. Roger Ebert has a rundown of why 2011 was such a terrible year:

http://rogerebert.suntimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20...

As for TV- no, it isn't in such a decline. But more and more people are watching online, and the existing TV networks don't have the stranglehold on content that they do on cable/etc. A lot of people watch stuff on YouTube, Netflix is making original content... there is space to disrupt TV watching yet.

[archangel_one]

Probably worth noting that the inflation-adjusted list, while more accurate than a non-adjusted one, is only the American domestic gross. It's quite plausible that the international gross would look different - one might expect that the trend there for Gone With The Wind would look a bit different to Avatar.

[InclinedPlane]

Adjusted for inflation, the top 5 highest grossing films in history were made in 1956, 1982, 1965, 1977, and 1939. Super blockbusters like Avatar are not new phenomena, they're merely par for the course.

Meanwhile, people are spending more time using computers or playing games, and that necessarily takes away from time and money spent watching tv or movies. More so, Hollywood no longer has a lock on the video entertainment people watch. More people have watched "charlie bit my finger" on youtube than have watched any show on broadcast tv currently. But more than that there are new, highly popular forms of video entertainment being produced which have very little to do with Hollywood. And many of these people are already making a living off of these works.

Imagine what will happen in the coming years when video production and hosting is even more ubiquitous and cheap and more people can opt to self-produce and self-distribute and take the lion's share of the revenues (from ads, direct sales, merch, live events, etc.)

Sooner than we realize the old power structures will fall away as more and more artists decide to keep control and profit for their works in their own hands.

[sopooneo]

Those top grossing numbers are deeply affected by the entertainment landscapes of their eras. Movies played for much longer in the past and there were fewer other entertainment options. So it is not apples to apples.

[InclinedPlane]

And? Population and demographics have changed as well of course. What does it matter? We're not comparing movies based on which had the biggest impact on the people of their time, we're talking about business. Of course competition in the landscape of entertainment is going to affect that, that's the whole point.

[caublestone]

What about if the price of apples went up you could still be making the same amount of money as when they were cheaper...and you need less people to buy your apples. I can almost guarantee that a smaller number of people saw Avatar in theaters than Gone with the Wind.

A movie ticket, on average, cost $.23 in 1939. Adjusting for inflation, thats $3.72 today. I think I paid $15 for Avatar 3D.

http://boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

[waterlesscloud]

They're also domestic box office only, which is an increasingly small slice of the pie.

A blockbuster today typically makes at least twice as much overseas as it does in the US & Canada (domestic totals include Canada).

The market in China is huge, and growing rapidly. Even Russia, which had traditionally be a small market, is quickly growing in size.

[bunderbunder]

If you adjust for how ticket prices have grown over the years, the highest-grossing films of all time are:

1. Gone with the Wind

2. Star Wars

3. The Sound of Music

4. E.T.

5. The Ten Commandments

So in those terms, we haven't actually had a new highest-grossing film of all time for seven decades. The nominal biggest movie ever, Avatar, really only comes in 14th.

Source: http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm