[MuffinFlavored]

> a back of the envelope estimate for the energy density would be something like 600-700 Wh/kg.

https://www.google.com/search?q=current+tesla+battery+energy... says Tesla batteries are currently in the range of 270-290Wh/kg

Is that accurate to you?

As in this is roughly at least twice as good as current technology? Seems too good to be true. When can we expect to see it hit consumer cars? 5 years? 10 years?

[aquarium87]

Except tesla is expecting and has been achieving 10% density increases in the last few years. Do this for 8 years, and you get double, same as the new battery tech that's gonna take 10 years.

1st gen: 276 Wh/kg (2022)

2nd gen: 305 Wh/kg (2023)

3rd gen: 333 Wh/kg (2024)[1]

Here is a cool article on all the tech that is scheduled or went into these new 4680 batteries and getting the energy density up well past 300.

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/22/everything-you-need-to-...

[1]https://insideevs.com/news/598656/tesla-4680-battery-cell-sp...

[redox99]

Your info is out of date. The 4680 actually ended up being 244Wh/kg[1], which is lower than the Panasonic 2170 at 269 Wh/kg that they were already using.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4XOHetABrag

[slaw]

Still, Tesla with 4860 is 9kg lighter than Tesla with 2170.

https://insideevs.com/news/600297/tesla-model-y-4680-is-just...

[blake1]

I assumed Tesla was at 300, which is pretty close. This might not be the tech for consumer cars though, but one thing I have seen is the enormous proliferation of applications for Li batteries as the costs have come down, and these will certainly find an application. That would be my bet.