Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by dogcomplex 1218 days ago
Agreed. We should also consider the context that - yes - the damages of climate change are disproportionately going to affect developing nations and increase natural disaster risk and food security, but these dangers are coming in against a strong trend of those risks going down for many people. Things were bad in the past - and they're still bad in many places now - but that has been shrinking rapidly. Climate change could very-well slow or even reverse this trend for a time, but barring a complete destruction of our technological progress, people in the future in general will still be far better off than now, even with this mess, and even in developing countries.

Now, of course, this doesn't mean these benefits will be evenly distributed (this is going to even further increase wealth inequality and be a deadly disaster for many people), and we are pretty terrible at prioritizing e.g. protecting natural ecosystem biodiversity. There will certainly be irreversible (in human timescale) losses to our ecosystem and therefore the knowledge and potential of future civilizations from this. And there are even some truly catastrophic death spiral scenarios possible. But it's likely that even the cynical reality will end up being something of a widespread unfairly distributed uptick in disaster risk and continuation of the mass extinction we've already started - slowing quality of life improvements for much of the world, but not stopping them - with an eventual strong recovery in all areas if/when we engage our new levels of technological advancement and begin re-wilding programs to purposefully regrow thriving natural habitats. (This is somewhat inevitable if/when the average quality of life of people is high enough they have room to care about such things. Industrial processes applied to helping nature thrive would do a lot)

This is the "human nature sucks at scale and we're slow to change course" cynical view but with a "technology and industry is crazy good in the long term at achieving its goals and uplifting people" bullish caveat prediction - which I believe to be the age-old trend. We clearly need better global-level response organization to deter the worst effects of climate change and help distribute risk so it's not all falling on the poorest people, but industry-wise - if we have to dump a trillion into something stupid-inefficient like direct carbon capture machines, we will. (My preferred solution is mass-farming kelp - far cheaper per CO2 ton and numerous additional beneficial products that basically make it pay for itself at scale). The world isn't coming to an end. It's coming to a recession/depression - which will be felt to different degrees very unfairly - and it's spurring new responses.