[kevviiinn]

>Each of those would lead us to drastically differing ways of trying to mitigate the next virus.

Except we did already know some stuff but a bunch of people ignored it anyway, including chunks of the government. We learned from past viruses and a certain admin just decided to ditch the literal playbook

[barney54]

Both the Trump and Biden administrations ditched the playbook. It is depressing.

[LorenPechtel]

They *always* do.

Acknowledging an outbreak means an economic hit to the area where it is. Officials *never* react in time to actually stop it because by the time it's obvious there's a problem it's already spread.

How far it spreads comes down to how well it spreads and how well it resists efforts to stomp it out.

SARS had low infectivity and showed symptoms before it became contagious--isolating the infected was possible. The world jumped on it and managed to fence it into extinction. (Note, however, that whatever the precursor was it wasn't ever identified.)

MERS simply doesn't spread well regardless of containment.

Covid-19, however, spreads mostly before symptoms show. This makes containment very hard--China was able to stop it with draconian lockdowns but even that doesn't work against the Omicron variants, it's simply not possible to isolate people well enough. (There are documented cases of it spreading through walls--the only way to be sure it doesn't spread is with a negative pressure room. It probably can't spread through a truly solid wall but most walls are not.)

[autoexec]

> it's simply not possible to isolate people well enough. (There are documented cases of it spreading through walls

that's... dramatic. It's an airborne virus that spread throughout a very badly constructed and poorly ventilated building that was literally filled with infected people.

The virus spreads easily, but it's far from impossible to keep it from spreading, as evidenced by the many people who have never caught it. There are a lot of variables that determines if someone gets sick after exposure. Someone can be in the same household with a person who has it and still never get sick. Containment is challenging, but not impossible, and it's probably not coming through the walls to get you.

Take sensible steps, and you've got a pretty good shot at avoiding getting infected as long as you aren't locked in a shitty hotel filled with holes and gaps in the walls where there are infected people all around you.

[yarg]

> because by the time it's obvious there's a problem it's already spread.

That doesn't quite ring true to me - there's a difference between 'obvious to the public' and 'obvious to the experts'.

The problem is that if you respond to the experts, the problems don't eventuate, and the public goes "well what was all the fuss?".

We saw that with SARS. People were actually criticising the (then competent) WHO for their zealous response.

You get praised for fixing problems; you get shat on for preventing them.

[LorenPechtel]

The politicians are rarely experts. Your last sentence does basically say what I'm saying, though.

[holografix]

> There are documented cases of it spreading through walls

Source?

[autoexec]

Not the person you're replying to but:

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/28/12/22-0666_article

I wouldn't worry too much about it though. I put it firmly in the possible but extremely unlikely category. I've seen other papers talking about the possibly of it spreading through apartment buildings though plumbing and air vents, and also spreading via shared spaces like hallways and elevators.

In the end, it's all a numbers game. If enough of the virus wafts your way and your immune system can't deal with it before it gets a foothold and spreads you'll get infected. If you've got a hole in the wall between you and your neighbor and your neighbor is sick and their virus is shedding like a stressed cat you might get sick too. We've also got plenty of cases where someone is living in the same household as someone infected and they don't get sick. It's really just down to the amount of exposure/viral load, and the immune system of the person exposed.

[LorenPechtel]

Yup, that's the research I was thinking of. Note that the transmission did occur, admittedly at a fairly low level.

China is full of buildings with many, many residents and far from airtight. Many buildings over there also do not use p-traps. SARS has been documented to spread through the sewer stack this way, Omicron spreads *far* better than SARS.

[metadat]

The claim is of the specious and super-bogus-misinformation variety.

We now understand how COVID infections occur:

As a function of viral load due to exposure via inhalation of exhaled droplets transmitted through air shared with someone shedding the virus.

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/frequently-asked-questi...

[yarg]

Fuck me, a quantum tunnelling virus.

[LorenPechtel]

No, it's that walls aren't normally airtight. All the documented cases involved situations where there was behind-the-scenes holes (utility accesses etc) even though there was nothing on the surface.