[grey-area]

Employment usually peaks just before a recession, along with denial of course.

The real economy is not doing well globally, inflation is a serious problem, and the impact of the rate hikes will take about 10 months to show up (so should hit this year).

[SantalBlush]

I've been reading these predictions on HN for almost a year now, and so far they've been false. If people keep repeating them, eventually we'll witness a recession and they'll be right, but that doesn't make their analyses correct, it just makes them a broken clock.

[grey-area]

So whatever the outcome, they are wrong and you are right?

[SantalBlush]

They're giving a broad time frame for recession to hit, and they keep moving it back, so eventually they will necessarily be right. In other words, they make predictions that are so vague, they necessarily can't be wrong. This is why their predictions are useless.