[anigbrowl]

I don't think Hersh's reputation is evidence, as such, although it has some persuasive value.

However, evidence is not the only valid form of claim-making. Predictive power also has value: if someone can assert something unlikely without evidence, but with sufficient specificity that it describes a subsequent development very accurately, then it's fair to presume that person probably has insight into the issue.

So while I am somewhat skeptical of Hersh's claims, they're also detailed enough that corroboration could be sought for.