[jsnell]

It is not a big deal. Ioannidis has been peddling basically the same study for years now. He put his reputation on the line in the early weeks of the pandemic by making some very badly thought out predictions. He believed the pandemic would kill a total of 10k people in the US, and basically ridiculed the people who thought it would be even as serious as the flu. That particular prediction was made when there were a hundred dead; his threshold of 10k was reached three weeks later.

But John wasn't discouraged! He then predicted that there would be at most 40k dead, and that it was imperative for there to be no measures that could hurt the economy. That number was exceeded 10 days after his prediction.

Since then, he has been trying to convince people that he really was right all along, and basically nobody died just like he predicted.

[smnrchrds]

As someone who is not familiar with finding medical literature, I would appreciate if you could link to those earlier claims by the author.

[gdavisson]

They weren't in the medical literature. The 10k prediction was in STAT news (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...) (note: it wasn't a hard prediction, but he seems to treat it as the best estimate based on the data at the time). The 40K prediction was quoted in the Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/without-mass-testing...). There's a good summary with additional links, quotes, and commentary here: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/10000-deaths/

[smnrchrds]

Thank you

[therealcamino]

Googling "Ioannadis 10000" gets you plenty of discussion within links on the first page.