[likeabbas]

At least in terms of the 3 navy video, I would argue that the data purports, with high confidence, that the craft did exhibit flight performance characteristics that we cannot explain with modern technology or physics. And these are just the three videos that got released. Many people with security clearances have come forward and said the AATIP database has hundreds videos (with the classified sensor data) of craft showing advanced flight performance characteristics.

I want people to understand that this phenomenon is real, and it’s happening constantly. So much to the point that it’s affecting military training operations and putting our fighter jet pilots at risk.

[JKCalhoun]

I'm skeptical and so lean pragmatic on the issue.

Fighter pilots at risk? If the military believed that they would already be fully engaged in solving the problem. In which case there is little for me or any other civilian to do.

And you say fighter pilots at risk but, and this will sound callous, an actual incident that caused a loss of aircraft would be more compelling. It does away with the may be at risk proposition. And, again, I suspect the military would be fully engaged in understanding the issue. Doubly so.

I guess I also believe that things leak. There isn't going to be a secret program that is so far advanced that it counters known physical laws.

It sounds as though you are certain that it is military in nature so no need to speculate as to whether it is extraterrestrial in nature.

[likeabbas]

Like the other commenter said, there’s a huge stigma amongst military officials to not report these events because the stigma is a career ended. That’s why the government added legislation mandating the DoD create a channel for these events to be reported.

Diving a little deeper, if the military suspected these aircraft were foreign adversary then this would be big news. But they don’t. They believe it’s something else entirely, which is why it’s not been public headlines until recently.

[revscat]

Same in astronomy and cosmology. Your career will be over if you do not hold a very specific view, or at least hold it publicly.

[likeabbas]

Exactly. We need this stigma to stop. There should be no reason to not study interesting data, and the data is very interesting.

[stevenhuang]

If you want to understand the stigma of reporting UAPs as a military pilot, see Ryan Graves interview with Lex Fridman:

https://youtu.be/qLDp-aYnR1Y

> There isn't going to be a secret program that is so far advanced that it counters known physical laws.

I think you've misread this part--parent is not saying these are ours, not at all.

We're all in agreement that if what we're seeing is real, these would be non-human in origin.

[JKCalhoun]

If they're non-human in origin then the whole thing is even less actionable. We're not going to learn the secrets of hyper drive just because the military acknowledges that these are real phenomena.

[blep_]

I don't know. We would learn that some things are possible which we thought were impossible, which means physics took a wrong turn somewhere and we need to back up and keep looking. Even if it's not the secrets of hyper drive, that's probably going to lead to something interesting.

[nprateem]

If they are real and non human maybe we can communicate with them and they can tell us. Highly unlikely based on their interest in our nukes and our obvious penchant for war

[scotty79]

> these would be non-human in origin.

So they must be natural in origin. There's no other option.

[likeabbas]

The direct quote from former DoD officials is that these aircraft are most a likely non-human intelligence.

[nl]

> We're all in agreement that if what we're seeing is real, these would be non-human in origin

I don't agree with this at all.

Firstly I suspect it isn't real.

But if it is then I think it's most likely some human group has a technological breakthrough and it using it like this.

Say a US adversary wanted to give a "don't fuck with us" message to the US military. Outperforming state-of-the-art US fighters would be a good way to do it.

And just because the HN forum commentators don't know who it is doesn't mean the US intelligence community doesn't know. It might be broadly known that the Kamerians have access to this tech, and the knowledge is classified "to avoid broad panic".

There might be secret briefing to congress about it, which would explain perfectly why there is an apparent lack of action. All responses are classified.

[nprateem]

If a foreign adversary had invented such tech, the West would have sanctioned the country into the ground to stop them producing more.

So it's either the US but they claim it's not them, and they keep doing more investigations, or they're not human. I don't buy the faulty sensor argument given multiple corroborating sources.

[nl]

It's impossible to say with such certainty what the reaction would be.

What if the country that developed it was a Western-aligned country like Japan, Israel or France?

What if the country was a country like Russia or Cuba, and has had this tech since before the fall of the Berlin wall and the US intelligence community wanted to keep it secret?

What if the country was a country that is under Western sanctions for other reasons but those reasons were a pretext? For example, if the developer was Iran or North Korea how would you tell the difference without access to classified information?

What if the country was able to blackmail the US into not imposing sanctions? How would you distinguish between that an US foreign policy towards a country like Pakistan or Saudi Arabia?

What if the country was a historically neutral mid-power where there is significant downside in sanctioning them (for example Switzerland)?

What if some elements of the US intelligence community support working with the foreign power and others don't?

There are just too many possibilities to judge the veracity of a theory like this by looking at US foreign policy?

[nprateem]

I don't think so. These things can disable nukes according to testimony given to Congress. They're the basis of US supremacy.

In the above situations, it'd be imperative for the US to acquire the tech through war, economic pressure or espionage, or if that wasn't possible try to prevent them manufacturing more. If it was a friendly country they'd have to share the tech.

This tech is basically like developing 5th gen fighters in the Stone age. There's simply no way the world's largest superpower wouldn't acquire the tech by any means necessary, since it threatens its very existence

[willis936]

Three videos is not a preponderance of data. The number of photos taken in the past day exceeds the number of photos taken in the past year exceeds the number of photos taken in the 20th century. We have cameras in space, we have cameras everywhere we have people, so then where is the expected increase in observations? UFO sightings have been relatively steady, with peaks and valleys as the zeitgeist ebbs and flows. If we don't assume UFO presence as constant (ie it might go down when we have more observing capabilities) then there's little information to be learned. At some point it turns into metaphysics.

Case studies are great, but I have not seen convincing, properly skeptical analyses. As they say: it's never aliens. People, unfortunately, are typically willing to see what they want to see.

[likeabbas]

Unfortunately most of this data is highly classified and not going to leak. We do have cameras everywhere, but I’m not sure how many civilian devices can capture a good video of something going Mach 15+.

All I can say to you is to look into the last NDAA legislation. These former DoD officials have convinced congress members enough to include legislation to further study UAP and create a system for pilots to report their events properly.

One final note: a true scientist should never rule out a possibility. Blanket saying “it’s never aliens” is wrong, because one day we almost for sure will find alien life in the universe.

[willis936]

Much like any guiding principle in science, "it's never aliens" is a rule of thumb. Obviously no scientist rules out legitimate possibilities, but it's similar to math being riddled with singularities. It's a sign that more work is likely needed.

[likeabbas]

More work is absolutely needed. But in this case, let me quote the former Deputy Secretary of Defense for Intelligence with regards to the data he's seen on UAPs: "Currently, the extraterrestrial hypothesis best fits the facts".

[willis936]

From my perspective it doesn't pass muster. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence and we simply don't have that evidence. "Trust us, we have the evidence, no you can't see it." is not good enough.

I have looked at the publicly available evidence, read the analyses, and thought long about this (as have many others). In my best estimate there is either a concerted effort by eccentric military leaders to trickle UAP sightings with a sprinkling of psyops. The US military is intentionally very opaque and slow, but that does not make it also all-seeing or wise.

[likeabbas]

I’m copying a comment I made above:

Lue Elizondo did far more than run AATIP. His primary job at the DoD was to prevent leaks from the Special Access Programs that contained the classified technology that would be working on what you claim UFOs are. Here is his performance report that outlined his official duties https://imgur.com/a/y0X1eoo His full IG report which had the performance report above is here https://www.dropbox.com/s/cgqoaeore81lbxs/Luis%20Elizondo%20... I find it hard to believe that the man whose job was to prevent the leaking of US classified technology would not know that these UFOs were just classified tech.

[revscat]

He said “fits the facts”, not “evidence shows.”

[mach1ne]

If the events happen mainly at altitudes, smartphones have a hard time capturing them. There’s also the argument that since these would be super-intelligent beings, they might aim for a level of exposure that they’re confident won’t make the grand public believe in their existence.

[krapp]

>There’s also the argument that since these would be super-intelligent beings, they might aim for a level of exposure that they’re confident won’t make the grand public believe in their existence.

The public by and large, more or less, already believes in their existence. There are actual religions built around aliens, this has been been a part of pop culture since the 1940s. If they're trying to obey something like the Prime Directive and prevent cultural contamination then they seem to be doing a terrible job. Picard would be ashamed.

[willis936]

Imagine you're a strong military and you have a potential adversary. You want to control what force capabilities you advertise. Maybe you test an anti-satellite rocket, maybe you decide to not shoot down a spy balloon, etc.

Now imagine you're a galactic force where the minimum ante for any extra-societal interaction is the highest existential stakes possible. You're going to be very careful and methodical with your force projection.

I'm not saying that's what's going on here, but there are many different plausible explanations for behavior that seems strange, unlikely, or convenient at first blush.

[guhidalg]

LOL! What? Aliens are worried about being exposed? Why? Did you ask them?

Answer: not aliens, just a big PsyOps to give the military more funding.

[marmetio]

We had AATIP and now we have UAPTF. They do stuff and brief Congress about it. Why is that not good enough?

[likeabbas]

UAPTF is now AARO. But it’s not enough for congress to be briefed. If what we’re seeing is a better understanding of physics, than this would affect everyone’s lives

[marmetio]

Then maybe they can mitigate the risk without you knowing about it.

[likeabbas]

What is that supposed to mean? This is about gaining a further understanding of reality; the universe

[marmetio]

> it’s affecting military training operations and putting our fighter jet pilots at risk

[likeabbas]

I didn’t forget. This issue could be both a security risk for our military members, and also an exciting venture for science.