[UltraViolence]

I'm very surprised that China would take the risk of fueling a political firestorm when these balloons are only marginally more effective than the satellites they already have.

These intrusions are clearly a violation of our airspace and could even be considered an act of war.

What the hell was Xi thinking? Is he trying to communicate that China can do whatever it wants with impunity? Did he even authorize this flight or was this someone else's decision?

[charlieyu1]

> What the hell was Xi thinking?

You are levelling yourself to think someone whose education ends with grade school to be actually thinking. He has done so many stupid things over the last decade.

And in China, all foreign politics are internal politics. Playing strong against the rest of world, at least by how it looks, will bring more power to him within CCP.

[UltraViolence]

True that. Their political system is extremely dangerous if it depends on the mental disposition of one man.

If Xi has a bad day he could start a nuclear confrontation with no one able to reign him in.

[qwezxcrty]

Or what if, it's not a spy balloon and a genuine mistake?

[UltraViolence]

I heard U.S. officials say that it's definitely a spy-balloon. They refused to say how they know this, but I assume they have their sources.

But a balloon has to intrude in someone's airspace. Doing so could trip off an international incident, like it has now.

[qwezxcrty]

Yes, it is definitely a silly move if it's really a spy balloon.

But I think it's still too early to draw the conclusion, given the strong Bayesian prior that how unlikely it is for China, with advanced spy satellites and a spy network in the US as accused by three-letter-agencies, to fly a huge, visible by naked-eye, balloon for spying and for starting an international incident.

[qwezxcrty]

According to the WSJ article I read today, it is indeed a spy balloon.

Well, then this time CPC certainly did a bad job unless they already got some valuable data.

[oreally]

They already said it was a mistake and unintentional.

But hey, they're the enemy to the USA right, so of course you'd believe everything they do is intentional and intended for subversion.

[landemva]

> What the hell was Xi thinking?

Pelosi visited Taiwan before last Chinese elections which ensured Xi would win.

If it's meant to be, better for Xi to have USA attempt to fight multiple fronts concurrently.

[cuteboy19]

So are you saying there was a chance someone else would win? I don't understand your priors to be honest. Elections don't really matter all that much in China. And it's not as though he has much opposition inside the party either. Would love to know your thoughts

[landemva]

Does USA benefit from fighting multiple fronts concurrently: Russia, China, maybe Iran.

The Ukraine conflict could be over in a week, but governments thrive on conflicts.

'German chancellor Angela Merkel said that the Minsk agreements had been an attempt to "give Ukraine time" to build up its defences.'

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-russia-may-have-make-ukr...

World going into more cold war benefits which groups in governments?