[ianburrell]

Balloon attack is a bad idea. Attacks don’t demoralize unless they are devastating. Devastating isn’t possible since US would threaten nukes. It also risks escalating the conflict and China mainland is more vulnerable. It would also get rid of any American uncertainty about defending Taiwan.

What matters isn’t the cost of fighter but cost of missile. The Sidewinder used was $400k. Unguided rockets might work and are super cheap. The US has a ton of fighter aircraft including Air National Guard that wouldn’t be sent overseas.

I suspect that balloons wouldn’t be that cheap. Similar NASA balloon cost $1 million. Since balloons are hard to steer, to be able to hit anything useful would require using guided glide bombs which are relatively cheap but not like dumb bombs. The cost is comparable to cruise missile.

Another problem is that it takes few days to week for balloons to cross the Pacific. Launch at start of war and it could be over by time arrive. Launch early and risk spoiling attack and maybe even causing war.