[ericmcer]

You really think in <10 years AI will be able to take a loose problem like: "our file uploader is slow" and write code that fixes the issue in a way that doesn't compromise maintainability? And be trustworthy enough to do it 100% of the time?

[pixl97]

Humans cannot do this 100% of the time. The question is will AI models take the diagnosis time for these issues from hours/days to minutes/hours giving a massive boost in productivity?

If the answer is yes, it will increase productivity greatly then there is the question they we'll only be able to answer in hindsight. And that is "Will productivity exceed demand?" We cannot possibly answer that question because of Jevons Paradox.

[eggsmediumrare]

I really think in <10 years it will be trivially easy for a single programmer to ask the AI for that code and move on to the next ticket after 10 minutes while earning $30/h accounting for inflation because productivity gains will have eliminated not only most programming jobs, but also the corresponding high wages.

[landryraccoon]

> You really think in <10 years

We have no idea how AI models will be in 10 years. At the speed the industry is moving is true AGI possible in 10 years? I think it would be beyond arrogant to rule out that possibility.

I would think that it's at least likely that AI models become better at Devops, monitoring and deployment than any human being.

[echelon]

Think banking Cobol and FORTRAN.

Non-AI code will be a liability in a world where more code will be generated by computers (or with computer assistance) per year than all human engineered code in the last century.

We'll develop architectures and languages that are more machine friendly. ASTs and data stores that are first class primitives for AI.

[22SAS]

My point exactly.

If I interpret OP's statement correctly, that chatGPT can build complex systems from scratch in 10 years. Then according to that statement, the only adaptation is to choose a new career because it has made almost all SWE jobs go the way of the dinosaurs.

[qualudeheart]

According to my calculations it’ll be more 9 years at the latest. You just need to build Cicero for code. Planning is the main feature missing from LLMs.