[zenmacro]

> Yes, yes, the sky is falling

I agree that we shouldn't buy into the media's perpetual gloom & doom machine but I also caution against the knee-jerk contrarian "everything is fine" impulse.

The percentage rate of change is often the best signal in these kinds of indicators. We're around 20% YoY. The last two years (2004 & 2008) we hit that kind of level weren't strong economies.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=ZAtQ

The Dec '22 FOMC Minutes also hinted that the FOMC is also watching credit card levels. Interest rates have exploded higher yet consumers are increasing their credit card debt.