[paxys]

Other news sources have a lot more detail about this.

1. There's a high risk of debris falling on people on the ground.

2. Any sensitive information collected would have been sent home already, so shooting it now isn't going to do much good.

So Pentagon leadership recommended not taking "kinetic action". What's interesting is that they have been tracking it for several days over the US mainland. You'd think the strongest military in the world could do something other than...just watch.

[sircastor]

>You'd think the strongest military in the world could do something other than...just watch.

There’s an argument to be made that the strongest military in the world showing restraint and just watching is probably a good thing.

[Waterluvian]

Nothing is more intimidating than an adversary who is intimidated by nothing.

[devwastaken]

The strongest military would have the capability of safely bringing down the problem. Watching it is no better than inaction.

[chiefalchemist]

Moved Iran and Afghanistan back a hundred years or more. Watches ballon and earns reputation as "restrained".

[ARandomerDude]

The US moved Iran — the country simultaneously providing cruise missiles to Russia and modern anti-tank missiles to forces in Yemen — back a few hundred years? The 1700s must have been wild.

[somenameforme]

Iran's history is quite an interesting one if you're not familiar with it. In the 1950s Iran was a relatively secular democracy. They had a mixed relationship with the West, but it was workable. When they discovered that the West was not fairly paying oil royalties as agreed upon, they moved to nationalize their oil.

This was unacceptable to the West, so we covertly overthrew their democracy and installed an unpopular autocratic monarch in 1953. This Monarch would then rule for the next 26 years until in 1979 they would have their own "real" revolution. It was largely led by Islamic extremists, and they replaced our puppet monarchy with an Islamic theocracy. And this theocracy not only has a pretty negative view of the West, but for some reason always thinks we're trying to engage in covert actions to try to overthrow them! Go figure.

1953 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'%C3%A9tat

1979 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution

[ARandomerDude]

Then a decade later the US gave Khomeini F-14s, which were the king of air dominance fighters at the time.

I’m not even suggesting this was good foreign policy, just that none of the above history proves the thesis that we set them back a few hundred years.

[DiogenesKynikos]

Iran's F-14s come from the Shah era, though the Reagan administration did secretly sell Iran spare parts during the 1980s, as part of a scheme to fund fascist militias in Central America without having to ask Congress for the money.

[badcppdev]

Your misquote of "a hundred years or more" as "a few hundred years" is a very careless thing to do.

You are are aware of the difference between the 1820s and 1920s I hope.

[ARandomerDude]

No, I think OP edited the comment

[badcppdev]

Woops sorry.

[lostlogin]

Has Afghanistan moved in any direction? It cost a lot for little gain.

Iran wasn't touched, you may mean Iraq.

[chiefalchemist]

Iraq. Yes, I did. Thanks.

[TurkishPoptart]

"Just watching" what they're calling a "surveillance" balloon continue to collect (somehow) information sounds unwise. That they watch it crossing the Atlantic onto U.S. territory seems especially asinine. It's as if we're more beholden to Disney shareholders than national security at this point, under the "Biden-Harris Administration".

[nonethewiser]

Showing restraint against a controlled takedown of the balloon? Cant say I see the value in that.

[sammalloy]

> There's a high risk of debris falling on people on the ground.

That excuse seems really odd to me. Montana is the third-least densely populated state with 6.86 people per square mile of land.

[cronix]

It also has a lot of active nuclear ICBM silos.

https://www.malmstrom.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-Sheets/Display/Ar...

[COGlory]

You can go drive past them, even stop to use the porta-potty. (ok, maybe not recommended) I've antelope hunted over there a lot. (East of Harlowtown) and it is as empty as it gets in the contiguous US.

They could probably shoot it down without making much debris. And even if it made debris, at most it would hit a cow. The reality is it's not collecting anything of value.

[anon223345]

Yes, they are probably just counting silos under an informal agreement…

These have taken place numerous times

[fbdab103]

Are the silos even a secret anymore? With ubiquitous satellite coverage, I assume that anything even possibly a launch site is extensively monitored. To say nothing of traditional mechanisms of gathering intelligence.

[ofrzeta]

There is an exhaustive list on Wikipedia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/341st_Missile_Wing_LGM-30_Minu...

[maxerickson]

The risk of letting it sit up there is ~0.

It's like a fly sitting on the windshield of your car parked in the driveway or something. It's there, it might be annoying if you think about it, but it isn't actually doing any meaningful harm.

[bentobean]

If so, then why did China go to the trouble in the first place?

[maxerickson]

I dunno, why did they? I think if you are concerned about it and I'm not, you are probably the one that needs to explain.

Maybe they are planning to drop an insignificant number of small munitions on random locations in the US or something.

[amw]

I haven't yet seen a compelling reason to think it is either Chinese or an espionage craft anyway,other than news reporting "the Pentagon sure thinks so"

[amw]

Update since i posted: chinese foreign ministry has confirmed, says it's for scientific purposes

[TurkishPoptart]

"Letting it sit", the "it" being what they're calling a "surveillance" balloon, seems absurd. If we have an ongoing MITM attack, we need to stop the attack, not simply observe it like idiots.

[vl]

Apart from the question why it wasn't shot down before entering airspace, sensitive information it collects is altitude wind patterns over missile sites and inability of administration to make a decision.

[throwaway4aday]

They mention in the article that the balloon only provides a marginal increase in surveillance capability when compared to LEO satellites. Considering the US pioneered a lot of satellite surveillance technology I imagine they have built everything accordingly since the 1960s and there's not much the Chinese can see from space or a balloon or I'm guessing even from a low flying Cessna.

[irrational]

> There's a high risk of debris falling on people on the ground.

In Western Montana? Rather doubtful. Just wait 5 minutes until it is over national forest land, which is the vast majority of the area, and then shoot it down.

[NegativeK]

There's definitely strength in saying "Your balloon is not a concern to us."

[pengaru]

There's more strength in demonstrating "Hey, do you want this silly balloon back?" after retrieving it without incident at negligible effort/cost.

Which is not at all what is occurring. Having flight tracks of multiple refueling tankers demonstrates far more resources have already been expended on this "not a concern to us" than was spent on deploying it...

[bentobean]

Yes, but you know what has even more strength? Sending up our own balloon in the shape of a giant ass and blocking its view.

[dole]

Or pointing a bunch of AliExpress laser pointers at it…

[sinerath]

They could put Carrot Top and Andy Dick on it and send it back?

[amw]

I understand why the State Department hyperventilates over "Chinese offensive capabilities" but no normal person ever needs to. China is not a threat to everyday Americans.

[kQq9oHeAz6wLLS]

Sadly, it could also come off as "we won't do anything about it"

[nonethewiser]

Less than surgically removing it with little effort.

[spacemark]

Ten bucks says they've already taken non-kinetic action. Jamming, optical lasers, etc.

[sfifs]

nope. why give away capability?

if there was any risk, it would be shot down. it it wasn't, it was probably observing wilderness/pastures

[dylan604]

what's the point of capability if you're never going to use it. isn't this exactly what non-explosive weapons are made for?

i say we launch a balloon that parks itself below theirs blocking the view. no capabilities given up then

[anon223345]

We have a “consequences taxonomy” we only show our hand depending on level of threat

Some bean counters decided this was low threat. And, more likely, China told us it was coming, and probably to just count silos like we’ve been doing back and forth since the 70s

If it was spooky, it wouldn’t be bright white…

[rlt]

> probably to just count silos like we’ve been doing back and forth since the 70s

Pretty sure they've got satellites that can do that.

[2fast4you]

> what's the point of capability if you're never going to use it.

The point is to use them on a real danger. Accurate or not, the Pentagon clearly doesn’t see this ballon as a threat in any capacity. Why would they do anything other than keep an eye on it?

[onlyrealcuzzo]

The military could shoot it down in less than an hour if it was a priority.

[anon7725]

Maybe they did - gathering intelligence or probing for an exploit, etc.

[advpetc]

I don't understand it here. If it's detrimental to national security shouldn't it be dealt with immediate action? I think it's a propaganda with a lot of self conflicted information.