[thomas_ma]

I think most people agree with you that Google can beat OpenAI on the eng/tech. Scary part for Google is: how do you monetize it? They might “beat” OpenAI with a better chat AI, but if that cannibalizes their $100bn search ad business…they are in trouble

[midasuni]

Better google cannibaliser it than someone else.

Apple released an iPhone, cannibalising their iPod market.

Google built a great search engine long before they worked out how to monetise it properly. If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will, and google will go the way of zune.

[htag]

> Apple released an iPhone, cannibalising their iPod market.

This is a terrible example. Everyone knew cell phones were a bigger market than mobile MP3 players, Apple was using this mobile expertise gained in iPod to move to a larger market. We don't know if ChatGPT will be a larger market than search currently is. Digital cameras (include sensors used in webcams and cellphones) are currently a smaller market than selling film was at peak. If ChatGPT will destroy Search volume, and if it will bring in 1/20th the revenue than it might be best for Google to delay adaptation as long as they can.

> If they can’t get AI working in their products someone else will

Google is using 'AI' in all their major products. It's possible that soon AI will make their most profitable products obsolete.

[midasuni]

When the iPhone launched everyone knew smart phones were a thing for businesses - locked down blackberrys giving email access. The mobile web wasn’t really a thing.

[scarface74]

I have no idea why this keeps coming up as an example. Apple didn’t release a cheaper product in favor of a more expensive one.

[pharmakom]

Zune wasn’t the incumbent though.

[scarface74]

Google’s issue has never been engineering talent. Their issue has always been product management/program management. They don’t have vision or strategy.