[justsomeadvice0]

> Imagination is not enough, we're going to need some hard data

Yes and I literally agree with you in my post. The problem is, as you admit, that data exists to point toward either conclusion; then you immediately speculate that the difference must be because:

> these cases tend to be biased towards health care settings

[incrudible]

Unless you get 100% of infections tracked, the risk from COVID will always be measured to be higher than the true risk. That part is not speculation.

Also, if a large study measured no effect, there likely is no effect, even if troves of smaller studies disagree. Publication bias.