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by cdf 1231 days ago
I cant remember if it was Thiel or Andreessen, but it was postulated that the consequence of "Software eating the world" is the unemployment it will create will keep interest rates low... until the pandemic had other ideas.

Is it reasonable to expect software to resume eating the world or will the population decline from low birth rates to pick up where the pandemic left off and we are in a permanent tight employment market... for blue collar jobs anyway, while "AI eats the white collar jobs"?
2 comments
onlyrealcuzzo 1231 days ago
Nothing spurs innovation like necessity.

We didn't actually need to automate jobs before. It might've been cost effective, but it was easy and risk-free to hire from an adequate pool.

Now we need automation because there aren't enough workers. So we'll probably get more automation until the pool is balanced.

See how much more automated things are in places without immigration and super low birth rates (Japan, South Korea).

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ehnto 1231 days ago
> See how much more automated things are in places without immigration and super low birth rates (Japan, South Korea).

I am not sure that Japan actually follows that trend. It's a big and complex country but in my experience there were more workers on jobs that in my western country would be just one guy, or no one at all, perhaps just a sign.

Japan has fairly low wages but good social services, public infrastructure, and affordable daily life so I suspect that the line to cross into "poverty" is actually quite a bit lower in Japan. Perhaps that allows the math to make sense since a company can afford to hire more people, and those people can still afford to make ends meet.

Happy to be corrected, my knowledge of Japanese economics is pretty shallow.

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fsckboy 1231 days ago
> keep interest rates low... until the pandemic had other ideas

the pandemic did not drive interest rates up. Flooding the economy with money ignited inflation, and higher interest rates are necessary to tamp down a recession.

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astrange 1231 days ago
Everyone staying home and switching from services to goods, which the supply chain wasn't ready for, can and did cause demand-side inflation.

It was about half and half, but that's a lot better than another great recession like 2008!

And of course then there was a war and some fires at chip factories causing supply-side inflation. It's been flat in the last few months though.

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