[DontchaKnowit]

Ignorant here because I dont know how ARMs are actually structured as far as what the lender can and cant do, but the idea of signing a loan contract and having no garauntee of the upper bound of the interest rate is absolutely wild to me. Banks will fuck you at any opportunity they have, so habding then a loaded gun and thinking theyre not gonna raise rates without a reason is crazy to me.

[savanaly]

The beauty of competition. The person lending you money always could fuck you over, but the greed of other banks would save you in that scenario. Which they know, so they don't fuck you over. Same reason grocery stores don't wait until you fill your cart up and then jack up the prices as soon as you reach the register.

[Our_Benefactors]

Oh, but they can do that now. I’ve been in grocery stores where they had ip-addressable e-ink screens for the price tags which updated regularly.

[ericvsmith]

Back in the 80s and 90s ARMs were very popular in the US because interest rates were high, and the expectation was that they wouldn't stay that way forever. The rate increases had a lifetime cap, so there was a knowable upper bound.

Edit to add: also, if you knew you were going to sell (and confident you could actually sell) within a few years, the lower initial rate of an ARM made sense.

[matwood]

There is also a material spread between ARMs and fixed when the rates are high. When rates are low the spread compresses (same with rates between terms 15/20/30), making the additional risk questionable.

I have a buddy who got a fixed 15y when rates were super low b/c he wanted to pay his mortgage off early. But, locking into the 15y barely lowered the rate vs a 30 fixed. I told him to do the 30 fixed, and just pay it as a 15y. This would give him flexibility if he lost his job or had some other emergency.

[ericvsmith]

Getting a 30y and paying off in 15 is a smart move. For our most recent house, that's we did set out to do, until the last refi (maybe 5 years in to the 30y) when we got a 15y and paid it off in 10 more years.

[bluGill]

I used to think that, but i'm not convinced anymore. In the best case it is smart, but I've known too many people over the years that either died before they were able to enjoy the fruits of their investment, or by the time they were that old their body was such that they couldn't do anything without much pain.

Better to pay off the house when you retire and enjoy life a little more. Of course you should save for a nice retirement, but don't plan all for when you get old. (Renting can also work out well, but you need more in other investments when you retire so you can keep paying rent)

[matwood]

You bring up a great and different point. Is paying off early worthwhile at all? I agree with you that it's really not. Given a low fixed rate, paying off a mortgage early is almost never a good financial decision. Particularly with a lump sum. It's most people's largest leveraged investment. Better to keep the cash and the leverage working for you.

[svachalek]

Even if there were no limitations in the contract, there's still a market. If your bank diverged too far you can just refinance. And if the whole market is high, inflation is probably crazy and you're watching the principal dwindle to insignificance anyway.

[bluGill]

They keep the same rate for 3-5 years. Then you refinance, so they can't do anything. If rates are going up, they can't go up as fast as rates, though in general you should always refinance just before the adjustment.