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by sinker 1232 days ago
Thanks I really appreciate that. MMA (UFC specifically) is still wide open to advantage betting because lines are often highly narrative-based. Data itself WRT to MMA is often misleading though for so many reasons (e.g., low quality of opponents presenting a skewed perception of fighter ability). However, looking at specific things is often quite useful.

The submission charts section of the site was particularly useful to me. You find that some fighters are skilled at one specific submission and that sometimes their opponents are highly vulnerable to that particular submission.

A big issue I found when trying to market the site was that, the majority of bettors have no interest in looking at data, reviewing fights, or putting any time towards making informed bets. Most people prefer to place bets naively primarily for the sake of entertainment.

2 comments

I think an interesting observation here is that the very thing that makes it difficult to get adoption of this product/data is the thing that makes the product/data valuable. Without the naive/narrative/entertainment bettors it would be more difficult to find an edge.

Presumably there is a very small, niche population that would find this information very valuable. Funnily enough, those that do find it valuable are unlikely to share it - if they're acting in their own self interest they don't want other sophisticated bettors to enter the market and inadvertently help the bookies set the line more accurately.

I've done (by my own definition) quite a lot to scrape and analyze NCAAF and NFL games in order to identify trends for sports betting. I'm somewhere between your average sports bettor versus a data scientist, probably closer to the former.

Let me know if you'd ever like to connect. It would be cool to expand my network of people in this area.

I'm far from a data scientist. I'm just someone that has an interest in building UIs and saw a potential to look at data in a way I hadn't seen before. I'm not actively working on this right now, but if you'd like to drop a line for whatever reason, I still check my Twitter for messages when they come up.

https://twitter.com/mmabetsharp