[taeric]

There is no exception. Don't fool yourself. Nor should you fool yourself into thinking this means management is inferior/inept. Or that it is sales.

The reality is dumb people do not have a monopoly on dumb things. Nor smart on smart things. Timing and circumstance are impossible to separate from any situation. Are lucky people also skilled at taking the correct risks? Almost certainly. Is this a learned thing? I'm not sure.

My gut is it is learnable. But not if others are learning the same thing. What makes a smart choice is influenced by what everyone else is doing.