[TillE]

That was the crass money-making part of it, but a lot of nerds earnestly believe(d) that cryptocurrencies would have massive world-changing consequences. I think it's increasingly obvious that there's little rational or empirical basis for such belief.

With AI, the biggest claims I see are overwhelmingly from people who are not doing cutting-edge work in the field, who have no real foundation for a belief that these AIs will continue to improve at a dramatic rate. Because to really change the world, they do need to get a lot better.

[simonw]

My personal excitement about language models is based on what they can do today.

I'm a big believer in the "capability overhang" idea, which is that the existing language models still have a huge array of capabilities that we haven't discovered yet.

That theory seems to be proved correct on a constant basis. Even the classic "let's think about this step by step" paper came out less than a year ago: https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.11916 - May 2022.

[iliane5]

Couldn't agree more.

This paper (https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.07682) also touches on a pretty fascinating phenomenon - that when scaling up large language models they seem to "naturally" obtain new emergent abilities that do not exist on smaller models.