[deltree7]

This is extremely naive take. No one can predict the future.

If I hire a bunch of construction workers expecting to sell 100 homes and suddenly the housing market collapse and I need to only build 50 homes that I have contract for, I need to fire some construction workers.

It is as simple as that.

No one can predict business cycles and that is the fundamental driver of sales and input costs. If one can successfully predict business cycles, they can be a superior macro investor and make billions.

The entire HN crowd talks about as though they never made any bad future decisions.

How many of you invested in stocks in 2021 that is down 50%? Did you cut down on subscriptions? Why don't you fire yourself for making stupid decisions?

[bluedino]

> I need to only build 50 homes that I have contract for, I need to fire some construction workers.

Just like during a boom when a carpenter can charge 3x his hourly rate, pick and choose his jobs, and anyone with a pulse can walk onto a construction site and get a paycheck.

[buffington]

Since people predict the future all the time, I'll assume you mean that it's a lot more difficult to make predictions in complicated systems like housing markets.

Assuming that's what you meant, let's consider the "I" in "If I hire..."

If you're hiring someone, whether it's for your home building business, or your tech company, you're not doing it unaware of the market you're operating in.

No real estate developer is ignoring potential futures. Those that do fail fast. That someone is hiring is evidence of that someone is making predictions. They're predicting at least one potential future where the person they hire helps the company achieve their goals.

Speaking from experience, when I hire people, I am most definitely thinking of the potential future that person helps steer a company towards. I'm also very aware of what will happen if I can't afford to hire someone. Sometimes it's worth risking potential market effects that'd make it so I can't afford to pay that person, but usually it's not.

> No one can predict business cycles

Happens all the time, and people frequently make accurate predictions.

> they can be a superior macro investor and make billions.

Tell me, how did the current crop of billionaires become billionaires? Certainly not by deciding that no one can predict the future.

[deltree7]

Have you built a Billion $$$ company? If so your comment about your own hiring is worthless. Anyone can run a small business. There are literally millions of SMBs

For large companies with public investors, there is a risk of not scaling at the right time.

History is filled with failed companies that didn't scale during 2012-2022 and were conservative.

History is also filled with idiots who claimed bubble and predicting crash every year.

If I have limited ambition of staying a $10 Million company, I can absolutely play it safe and hire very conservatively.

Scaling is a Risk/Reward play and that's what the investors pay the premium and expect rewards

[buffington]

> Have you built a Billion $$$ company?

I was a cofounder and CTO of a company that, at its peak, had a valuation in the billions. So yes.

> History is also filled with idiots

No disagreements here.