Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by algo646464 1244 days ago
If there are US fabs, and China invades Taiwan then Taiwanese fabs are destroyed, and China loses access to advanced chips, but the US and the west do not. This puts China at a major disadvantage compared to the US, for at least a few decades in the future, if it decides to invade Taiwan.

It seems unlikely that US and west would get involved in a direct major military conflict with China, no matter what. The costs are too great. It is far more likely that they would only provide military equipment and intelligence (like Ukraine).

So this move of TSMC actually strengthens the shield a lot more than it weakens the spear.

1 comments

I suspect you are mistaken about the USA's willingness to go to war over Taiwan.

At this point, an attack on Taiwan is an attack on the USA. I suspect China is very much aware of this.

I suspect if the USA goes to war with China over Taiwan it will lose.
Doubtful because an attack on Taiwan would also be an attack on Japanese and Korean trade.

The three gorges dam is also hangs a bit of a sword of Damocles for china. A few good hits is as good as a nuke.

The USA would lose in Taiwan, or would lose a greater war.

The first seems reasonable enough given the proximity to China and Chinese hypersonic missles. The second seems rather fuzzy.

> At this point, an attack on Taiwan is an attack on the USA.

Who or what are you citing? That isn't US policy as far as I know. I can't recall any US president, political party, etc. taking that position.