[gbog]

I have been living in China for 9 years now, and ever since (and certainly before) there's been fears and rumors about real estate bubbles, pollution, war, social crash, etc.

I can understand that China raises fears and disbelief: how could dare a self-proclaimed communist country build the biggest capitalist market in the world? And, moreover, doing it using the exact opposite way as proposed by European social democracies (China has economic freedom without political openness, while France, for instance, has the opposite)

But for anyone coming here in China, from Westerners to Indians to Africans, there is this stone-hard fact: it works, it is happening and it works. In China, they actually have highways all over, they build new factories everyday, they grab millions of peasants out of poverty every year. This process has a lot of difficulties, yes, but who would hope it wouldn't?

So the real estate bubble fear: I can only talk about what I know, and what I have seen. I was in Chengdu for 3 years. An enormous percentage of the city center is actually owned by the local government. Same thing in Beijing, where I have lived for 6 years: in my street the local government did order renovation for all places it is owning during the post-olympic little depression (just a "post coitum anima triste"), so it was very clear: they own half of the hutong street. In Kunming, nearly half of the city is a University. What I mean is that, contrary to many Western govs, Chinese gov still has a strong leverage on real estate. They are already reacting in real time to stabilize the market.

So, sorry to tell you that, but your eruption feels a bit ill-grounded.

[nir]

Since I arrived here at Bob's Turkey Farm, I have been treated with nothing but the finest standards of hospitality a bird could hope for. Gourmet food is literally shoved down my throat - portions seemingly increasing by the day! - and I scarcely need to do anything, which is just as well as by now I've become rather plump.

[I don't really know much about China's economy. This is just about the notion that things will be great since they've been great for a while, and doubters are simply jealous]

[RyanMcGreal]

> how could dare a self-proclaimed communist country build the biggest capitalist market in the world?

Capitalist markets are susceptible to bubbles, panics, crashes and recessions.

[gbog]

True, but maybe less so when grown inside a Communist building.

[hessenwolf]

What is the investment return on buying an apartment? If it isn't a few percent above the government borrowing rate, it's a bubble.

What is the multiple of median gross salary the average dwelling is selling for? If it is up around 5 or higher, it is very probably a bubble.

[anamax]

> But for anyone coming here in China, from Westerners to Indians to Africans, there is this stone-hard fact: it works, it is happening and it works.

I don't think that communism is responsible for China's success.

Yes, the Chinese that I know are not representative, but unless they're 2+ sigmas different, the relevant question is "why has China done so poorly?" After all the people are top-notch, and that's not something new.

The truth is closer to "the Chinese govt is not keeping the Chinese people from succeeding as much as it used to", but that's not much to be proud of.

[mjwalshe]

Peopel ignord the looming real estate bubble in spain and Ireland for a long time and its not exactly working out for them is it