Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by nate_meurer 5269 days ago
If the data I have read is to be believed, the biggest driver of the growth of China's GDP is real estate investment. I have read this in many places, including here:

http://www.alsosprachanalyst.com/economy/nominal-vs-real-gdp...

1 comments

Your linked article doesn't even mention real estate investment(?)

(The title here is Nominal vs. Real GDP Growth Of China. "Real" - in this context - means "adjusted for inflation". Beyond that it is an interesting article but doesn't seem relevant to the real estate discussion at all)

Read it again chump. You need to-- oh wait, damn, you're right.

Sorry. Try this instead. No real numbers, but perhaps a bit of inductive support:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/136963/patrick-chovan...

lol

Residential real estate construction now accounts for nearly ten percent of the country's total GDP -- four percentage points higher than it did at the peak of the U.S. housing bubble in 2005. Bullish analysts have long argued that large-scale urbanization and rapidly rising incomes warrant such an extraordinary boom.

10% of total GDP is significant, but when the economy is growing at 10% a year[1] it can afford to drop quite a lot without necessarily causing an economic meltdown.

To be clear - I'm not claiming that a drop in real estate prices won't cause problems for the entities involved in the Chinese real estate sector. What I am claiming is that it might not be as catastrophic as people expect based on the US experience.

[1] http://www.google.com.au/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9...