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The big takeaway from these articles that are coming out should be that baseline estimates are really difficult to do. For any carbon project that is deferring harvest you need to be able to accurately predict what would happen if an area was not included in the project, that is, predict a future that will not occur.

Project developers may use one method to do this, rating agencies may use another method, but at the end of the day we can never actually know. There are so many unknown physical, social, and economic factors that go into whether or not some area will be harvested. This is why we see such huge ranges in estimates of impact.