[turbokatsu20]

Science has no agreed consensus on what the definition of 'life' is. If we can't agree on its definition, how can we accurately calculate the odds of it arising ab initio?

Also, your second point is the wrong question being asked. The first is "how likely is it that life arose by chance in a lifeless universe?" The second should be "how likely is it that this ordered and organised system in front of me is the product of engineering and intelligence?"

Based on what we know about information management systems, it's extremely likely that any information management system that we stumble across is the product of intelligence and intention.