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I admit I don't understand it fully either. If you want to read about it from more famous people than me, it is called "self-sampling argument". I'll try explain what I think I know. Why some group is not empty is different from why it is me who is in that group, when I could very well be in the other one, like almost everyone. When the other group is much larger, then most potential "me"s will observe that they are in the larger, more typical group. The others will be surprised because they get the less common result, but most will not. There are more intuitive examples than being human versus insect. Let's say, vast majority of people are not members of a royal family, so, knowing nothing else about myself, I should expect not to be, either. (Fits, afaik.) There are also some counterexamples, like that most people live elsewhere than in my town, but these are often tailored to me. Going back to the plankton problem, I observe the equivalent of being a prince. Someone has to be, for sure, but is there a reason why me? |