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by adam_arthur 1246 days ago
Hmmm, 2-3 high end GPUs implies it's likely not very far off from mainstream. Maybe runnable on the average device within 10-20 years... perhaps even sooner if the model/software can be optimized?
3 comments

> 2-3 high end GPUs implies it's likely not very far off from mainstream

Looks like FLOP/s per $ are doubling every ~3 years for high end cards, and 10x in ~10 years. So probably not that far off for desktop users.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/c6KFvQcZggQKZzxr9/trends-in-...

FLOPs remain unused when the bottleneck is bandwidth.
I’d be surprised if there weren’t any algo breakthroughs before that to make these several times faster (10x?).

(such as are all of the weights really needed all of the time, or could you load different ones based on recent context?)

If in 10 years on top of that you’d have that 10x faster hardware as well, you might be running GPT-3s as just a subcomponent of games/apps.

ChatGPT prompt: What's the difference between a component and subcomponent?

A component is a self-contained unit of functionality, often in the form of a class or object, that represents a piece of an overall system or application. A subcomponent, on the other hand, is a smaller, simpler component that is used as part of a larger component. A subcomponent is typically used to break down a larger component into smaller, more manageable pieces, and is often used to create reusable building blocks for larger components. In other words, a subcomponent is a component that is used by another component.

20 years?
In 20 years I'll still be alive and enjoying myself. Does 20 years seem long to you?
it seems a bit long for achieving just running your own AI models locally, given it seems to be largely a question of vram and that you already _could_ do it today with a handful of graphic cards.

20y ago we had the GeForce Ti4400, current graphics cards now come with 100x the vram and 50-60x the bandwidth.

That's one hell of an assumption. Many of my Russian friends were absolutely certain they'll be alive and well for at least the next 20 years not that long ago.
Sure, they will be alive if not come to Ukraine.
If I'm dead then being able to run an AI locally doesn't matter anyway