And it is still (by a mile) the best advice you can give someone who (1) doesn't rely on the money in the short term and (2) doesn't want to spend mental capacity on managing his money.
The only difference i'd suggest for people who want to spend 1% more mental capacity is to mix their ETF up so they have global and other-assets exposure.
People like to feel in control, like to gamble, like to be clever, like to know a secret trick. But they are just lying to themselves.
No matter the macroeconomical circumstances, there's no magical risk/return profile that will beat stocks until there's a significant paradigm shift (and no, a minor recession after a period of weird monetary policies isn't it)
What is your suggestion to do instead?
Owning a non index fund will have a fee of at least 1%
Putting it under your mattress makes you lose from inflation.
I'm not sure doing 60 / 40 stocks and bonds could be another solution.
Picking stocks only if they are likely to perform better in the future instead of only because they belong to US market. Aka value investing.
Or alternatively, have a basic macroeconomic understanding knowing when enter/exit the market. This might not let you pick up the top/bottom but at least is more intelligent than "staying in the market because it was always trending up".
The only difference i'd suggest for people who want to spend 1% more mental capacity is to mix their ETF up so they have global and other-assets exposure.
People like to feel in control, like to gamble, like to be clever, like to know a secret trick. But they are just lying to themselves.
No matter the macroeconomical circumstances, there's no magical risk/return profile that will beat stocks until there's a significant paradigm shift (and no, a minor recession after a period of weird monetary policies isn't it)