[feralchimp]

All other things being equal, yes, it's better to get in on the next thing early than to get in on the current thing late.

But the variables that go into a) when you came up with your idea and b) how convinced you are that the idea is worth pursuing are Not Independent of the wave functions discussed in the article!

Part of the reason you're convinced that your social networking idea is sound is that there are concrete examples of successful businesses operating in the space.

At the end of the day, you either believe in your idea's potential to create value for investors in virtue of creating new/increased value for users, or you don't.

If you do, go for it and live with the wave phase you're dealt.

If you don't, waiting around hoping to pitch it in Next Thing terms probably isn't going to help you.