But it is backed by the data. Check out my other responses.
If you’re either “realistic” or pessimistic, what about the data and trends we already have doesn’t convince you of a giant cost reduction over the decade to produce batteries?
we'll see about that. It does not seem to be true for the Leaf batteries. These early 24kwh models have replacement batteries costing like 11-12k. Based on the rapid depreciation of the car's value(how many people want a car that can only go 80ish miles?) that battery pack price makes it a non starter for many people.
I am looking forward to third parties hopefully releasing their own packs. How would you warranty and insure them though? Also forget about third party packs for Tesla. They have so much integration that I doubt you'll see anything other than replacement packs from Tesla.
You can be sure the invisible hand of the free market will take care of that, and also of the "it's 4x cheaper to charge an EV than fill an ICE vehicle tank"
The technology is just too distributed already for any of that to happen.
Cost of charging an EV is bounded by the ability to add solar panels to your house (currently solar installations “pay for themselves” in 7 years in Seattle - not so sunny - high cost of labor location). The grid and “free market” have to be able to compete with that for cost.
Batteries like solar panels are very cheap to transport. They are flat, they can easily stack, there is no expiration period, and no temperature regulation needed to transport them. Batteries will be produced globally if the local markets start gouging.
Solar panels are already a great example of this cost reduction curve. So I’d say your outlook is very pessimistic and not backed by the data.
You'll need a shit load of solar panels to charge a 60kw+ EV regularly, and a shit ton of sun.
A lot of people don't own/live in a house in Europe, let alone a house with enough land for a proper solar installation
If it was that easy every single house would already be self sufficient in electricity, if you can half charge a 60kw EV battery every day you could easily run everything in your house
I'm 100% pro solar but I think people just don't understand the numbers here, with my _yearly_ electricity consumption I can only charge a 75kwh tesla battery 25 times, that's once every 2 weeks.
> So I’d say your outlook is very pessimistic and not backed by the data.
I'm telling, people who want to make money won't change overnight. Of course that's different than trickle charging your EV in your garage but a lot of people 1 don't own a garage, 2 won't have the proper installation for a quick charge and won't have that any time soon.
I know lots of people here are 100$k+ tech worker living in fancy and sunny places but the reality is that the vast majority of people can't even afford an EV right now, let alone a 20$K+ solar instal for the house they don't even have yet.
> A lot of people don't own/live in a house in Europe,
Ok fair enough, I shouldn't have said "on your house".
The point of my comment was the decentralization of energy production and storage. i.e. "Cost of charging an EV is bounded by the ability to add solar panels to [someone's] house [, relatively nearby]". e.g. please look into https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/community-solar-basics
For as many people in the city that cannot add solar panels, there is land owned by someone who is very happy to install solar (with your money - as an "investor"), generate an excess, and sell it to the grid. It seems very unlikely that "the invisible hand of the free market" will result in higher cost of electricity for individuals.
Additionally, from 2019: "Under the 25-year contract with developer 8minute Solar Energy, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power would pay less than 2 cents per kilowatt-hour — a number city officials and independent experts say would be the lowest price ever paid for solar power in the United States, and cheaper than the cost of electricity from a typical natural gas-fired power plant."
Your narrative is counter to the industry’s expectations of itself. Your narrative is counter to the research and science already showcased in labs.
So I just want to understand your perspective better. What sources are you using to justify “unlikely”, or are you using intuition?
Keep in mind exponential curves are very hard for humans to grasp and even harder for humans to believe, but the super majority of the time those curves hold for many decades.