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by lalaland1125 1254 days ago
A "posterior probability for p" for a Bernoulli distribution is meaningless because it's equivalent to a single Bernoulli distribution.
2 comments

It's meaningful in the sense that what the model produces is often not the posterior probability.

See my other comment for more detail.

If one only had such an estimate for a single example, this would be true, but in aggregate over many predictions, the uncertainty bands can useful for decision making. This is an active area of research.