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lalaland1125
1254 days ago
A "posterior probability for p" for a Bernoulli distribution is meaningless because it's equivalent to a single Bernoulli distribution.
2 comments
contravariant
1254 days ago
It's meaningful in the sense that what the model produces is often not the posterior probability.
See my other comment for more detail.
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steppi
1254 days ago
If one only had such an estimate for a single example, this would be true, but in aggregate over many predictions, the uncertainty bands can useful for decision making. This is an active area of research.
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See my other comment for more detail.