[PeterisP]

The $/capacity may be quite different. The capacity of burner systems is generally cheap, so you oversize them and if you need more heat, you just burn more fuel. The capacity of a heat pump is relatively expensive, so you size it up to something reasonable, and in an unusually cold day you may hit the limits of how much joules you can get out of it.

Also, the $/fuel is different - if one system gets three times more joules from the same fuel, it doesn't mean it's more efficient as the other system may be using four times cheaper fuel; so a 300%-efficient heat pump is more efficient than a resistive heater but may be less efficient than a furnace burning cheap fuel.