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by lettergram
1249 days ago
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The real struggle is the government - fed, treasury, etc all claimed the inflation was “transitory”. A lot of people have been caught off guard. Aka people expected a deflation. I was pointing out most of the increase the last 3 years occurred in 2021. I actually believe 2022 has far higher inflation than they claim in government figures. At least locally, it’s higher based on my tracking. 2023 will be worse for food due to fertilizer issues, I suspect fuel prices will also increase. Effectively, expect more expensive commodities. That said I’d suspect housing and other goods being kept up with loans to decrease. For fertilizers - it takes ~10 years to get potassium online, for instance. The other chemicals take 3-5 years, so we shall see how this goes. |
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The prediction that inflation spike was transitory (which was universally abandoned anyway) was not a prediction of a rapid return to past prices, but of a rapid return without significant policy intervention to normal rates of inflation.
> At least locally, it’s higher based on my tracking.
Local inflation tends to differ from the national average one way or the other, and I doubt your tracking is anywhere close tonas comprehensive and systematic as any of the major federal government inflation measures.
OTOH, the PCE—which is what the Fed uses to guide police decisions—during the spike has jumped higher than the CPI and came down slower, so “the CPI has understated recent inflation” is part of the premise of recent monetary policy.