[sf_rob]

RE 2: As far as I can tell the last strategic reserve sale occurred in mid-November with no sales in December / bids for repurchases being solicited. It's possible that the supply effects continued through December, but it seems a bit tenuous without economic modeling.

[lettergram]

It takes time for a sale to hit the market. I believe the last sale (or second to last) had a several month delivery window.

That said, fair enough - it’s really hard to predict commodity prices at a global scale. China locked itself down which cut its usage, for instance.