[AYBABTME]

With China dropping its zero-covid policy, I think we're realistically on the way out. However there's no avoiding that we need to pay for 2-3 years of lost global productivity.

I mean picture yourself stopping work for 2-3y with zero planning, living on debt and pretending like nothing happened. At some point the bills come due.

[qqqwerty]

I am not sure what to think about China. Dropping the zero-covid policy feels like just the start. They still might go through a couple of waves of covid before things get back to normal. Or things could snap back fairly quick, hard to predict.

Another factor working its way through the system is the "reshoring" of manufacturing. A lot of companies gave up on China and are moving their manufacturing to other countries or closer to home. This probably creates inflationary pressures as the development of the manufacturing facilities create s a fair bit of demand, but also staffing the facility creates more demand for the local workforce. So if this trend continues I could seeing this being a long term inflationary pressure.

[AYBABTME]

I think at least the China situation or lack of manufacturing capacity will resolve itself by the end of the year. Reshoring will change things but I think over the next 2-3y, making it so that overall the big turbulence we live now goes down slowly until the end of the year and then stabilizes at a higher inflation rate than expected (3-4-5% out of my magic hat), but not as wild as now.