| People in this thread seem to be expressing confusion as to why they would be doing this "when the economy is still so strong" The economy is not "still strong" by most measures. Employment is still strong although there are lot's of arguments to be made that when you dig beneath the surface things are much less rosy. But it get's way worse when you look past employment. Both volume and rates on maritime container shipping are down roughly 80% YOY.
https://www.drewry.co.uk/supply-chain-advisors/supply-chain-... PMIs are falling off of a cliff
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi S&p Earnings are in steep decline off the peak
https://www.macrotrends.net/1324/s-p-500-earnings-history Consumer revolving credit is extremely high while the savings rate has fallen off of a cliff since the pandemic peak
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REVOLSL https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT Housing volume has fallen off of a cliff, auto wholesale has fallen off a cliff, Major Metro Commercial real estate volume has fallen off a cliff while REITs are suspending withdraws. All of this while tax receipts are about to drop off of a cliff while US debt to GDP and deficit to GDP are essentially at historic highs while the rollover rate on that debt is constantly increasing. And then realize that the US is in a drastically better position than China, Europe and Japan It seems like some of the HN crowd is very out of touch with the realities of the economic data. |