[earthscienceman]

Extremely valid points. Thanks for sharing your perspective, counters. It's much appreciated. One thing I think is fascinating, every time this comes up on a place like HN, is how detached the conversation often is from the meat-and-potatoes of forecasting. Which is to say I've seen many a googler think that weather forecasting is a simple problem and handwave the discussion away with "throw compute at the problem". It's always great when there are people around to ground the discussion.

Last point to the specifics. You're very right that the American teams have nailed mesoscale/rr forecasting. Which is, if we wanted to really divert the discussion, interesting and arguably more advanced because of its industrial applications (wind farms, etc et al).

I think your most salient point is about how the extra compute resources foster a culture of improvement on the models themselves. I am on the compute task team and it's something I argue for every day. Are you a researcher? If so, send me a message. I used to have my NOAA email in my profile but it would probably be neat to connect professionally.