[kaycebasques]

Macro investing.

> Playing the markets is about as real as a game can get. There is, of course, a divergence between expectations and outcomes, but the outcome has an inexorable quality about it. In most social situations---in politics and in personal and business relations---it is possible to deceive oneself and others. In the financial markets, the actual results do not leave much room for illusions. The financial markets are very unkind to the ego: those who have illusions about themselves have to pay a heavy price in the literal sense. It turns out that a passionate interest in the truth is a good quality for financial success.

The Alchemy of Finance by George Soros

[elmomle]

And yet I know some personal wealth managers who are just about the most noxious people I've run across--their success is entirely due to connections, they're all about minimizing how much Uncle Sam "steals" from them, and they will talk your ear off about how undocumented immigrants are freeloaders. They're the very definition of being born on third base and thinking you've hit a triple.

This isn't to say that you're incorrect about macro investing, just that there are niches in such fields in which plenty of incompetent BS peddlers flourish.

[fallingknife]

This is not a good example. If you are in the tax avoidance game you better know the rules like the back of your hand. Because if you cross the line, all the BS in the world isn't going to save you from the consequences.

[kaycebasques]

IMO Soros covers this in the sentence about social situations

[plasticchris]

Ironic then that the Soros fund is down 66 percent over the past year.

[kaycebasques]

Is he still running it day-by-day? It averaged 20% annual return for 4 decades under his watch. So if he invested $1000 on day one he grew it to $1.5M by the end. And with the 66% loss he's still at $990K.

[ProjectArcturis]

Lol no. Macro investing doesn't have a large enough sample size over a human lifetime to distinguish the good from the lucky.