[satvikpendem]

I will post again my answer to what someone else asked similarly the other day [0]:

One thing we must make clear is, is there actually a recession? Many companies are firing, but they've fired much fewer than they've hired in the past few years. Many companies are still hiring now. I don't think there is a recession, much as people might be scared that there is.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34296393

[readthenotes1]

Last time I was on the interstate, there were a god awful number of trucks moving junk. Restaurants nearby are busy. Unemployment is pretty low (U-6). We may have receded from the helicopter-money fueled mania of last year, but there doesn't appear to be widespread pain one usually associates with "recession"...

[opportune]

There is a saying that generals always fight the last war.

With all the talks about recession, IMO people are not appreciating that not all recessions are like the GFC we just went through. Yes, some recessions are really bad. But historically there have been milder recessions which were not as catastrophic.

What made the last recession so bad was due to a problem (lax loan standards causing the housing market to become overpriced, very fragile to macro conditions, and creating riskier-than-expected financial derivatives) that is since addressed. The days of NINJA loans are over, and the financial markets are of course going to be cautious in assessing the risk of financial instruments based on mortgages going forward.

We are in an entirely different situation now where supply/demand and global trade keep getting messed with due to COVID and geopolitics, and where central banks across the world are having to deal with the effects of over-stimulating the economy. This is us finally leaving the status quo of low rates and low inflation (in most developed economies) after over a decade. So yes that will disrupt things, but it doesn’t mean it will be anything like last time.

People also don’t appreciate that a stock market/asset price correction is not the same as a recession. The two often co-occur for obvious reasons, but each can happen independently of the other.

[starwind]

People have been calling for a recession since June and you can see the signs everywhere except where it really matters to people: the labor market

Slow down? Sure. Recession? Eh.

[WhiteBlueSkies]

I really dk why you're being downvoted. Seems the only correct option when hysteria starts is to join it.

[bobthepanda]

As they say, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent

[huhtenberg]

Oh, sweet summer child.

Give this a skim - https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/sea-change

[satvikpendem]

You know what they say, economists have predicted nine out of the last five recessions. This has the same energy.