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by granshaw 1263 days ago
The most talked-about coming recession ever... don't go overboard, in case it doesn't happen...
1 comments
incomingpain 1263 days ago
In 2018 several high ranking economists as well as Powell said they know how to prevent recessions.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Had 1 in 2020, and 1 in 2022. On average they are 7-10 years between. Split US government control likely going to result in balanced budgets. High cost to debt means less spending.

Reality speaks, the next recession is always coming.

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zugi 1263 days ago
> Split US government control likely going to result in balanced budgets.

I don't see the U.S. getting anywhere close to balanced budgets in the next few years. Deficits are running a trillion dollars a year. Divided government blocks bold new expensive programs, but existing programs and spending just keep growing.

For just one example: last year Congress spent an extra $100 billion on defense alone over and above what was originally budgeted. Anyone who pointed that out was accused of being a Russian shrill or of hating Ukraine, because $26 billion of that went to support Ukraine. But no one discusses the other $74 billion...

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incomingpain 1262 days ago
> don't see the U.S. getting anywhere close to balanced budgets in the next few years.

This mccarthy as speaker thing was odd to me. From my point of view Gaetz and friends were on team mccarthy. So why would his own team do what they did? Here's what they fought for...

>"We're going to have votes on term limits, balanced budgets, enforcement of our immigration laws, & more."

Basically everything they all wanted to do; there was never any obstruction. This was theatre.

>Deficits are running a trillion dollars a year. Divided government blocks bold new expensive programs, but existing programs and spending just keep growing.

You don't see it as practically possible. Totally get this and agree.

The thing is, maga republicans basically control the house. If democrats want to do anything at all in the next 2 years, they have to give them what they want. They made it clear what those things are.

Forcing the democrats to balance the budget will be beyond disruptive for the next 2 years on its own.

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juve1996 1263 days ago
> Had 1 in 2020, and 1 in 2022.

What people colloquially refer to as a recession vs the textbook definition is important to understand.

> Reality speaks, the next recession is always coming.

Just like the sun rises and falls. But this is meaningless information. Recessions have varying severity and you can't say when it comes.

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zamalek 1263 days ago
> Reality speaks, the next recession is always coming.

The question is about which plans it affects. This year, next year, or seven years from now?

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incomingpain 1262 days ago
>The question is about which plans it affects. This year, next year, or seven years from now?

If you find out, tell me.

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