[leoplct]

Don’t buy stocks before 2H 2023, or until the 1Y US bond yield is greater than inflation. In other terms until the real interest rate is positive.

[voisin]

What’s your logic here? Negative real interest rates are artificially inflating the market?

[raincom]

Interesting take, as interest rate = inflation + cost of money

[leoplct]

Because central banks will increase interest rates until real interest rate will turn positive. Every rally in the meanwhile is just a bear market rally.