Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by jmathai 1265 days ago
Humans are terrible at gauging risk. I think the parent comment was highlighting the risk component of this.

VTSAX-and-chill is gambling also. But the risks are so wildly different that Tether is closer to buying lottery tickets than index funds.

Everyone does what they want with their money but there seems to have been an explosion of “massive returns” content that I think is generally harmful.

(I’m neither saying that this post is or isn’t harmful.)
2 comments
wjnc 1265 days ago
I’ll just go out and enjoy “neither A or B” instead of “not A or B” or “A nor B”. I had to parse “neither is or isn’t harmful”.
link
dghlsakjg 1265 days ago
I don't have a deeply researched position behind this, but my feeling has always been that (long term, I say again, LONG TERM) VTSAX and chill is the same bet as holding cash.

If your VTSAX ends up being worth nothing long-term, there is almost certainly no chance that your currency survived the same event.

link
jmathai 1265 days ago
Curious about this. The geometric mean of return for the S&P500 is about 7% over several decades. The longer the time horizon the more likely you’ll hit 7%.

Why do you think it’s similar to holding cash?

link
dghlsakjg 1265 days ago
Not that its the same return as holding cash (clearly that isn't true), just that if VTSAX doesn't pay off as a bet long term, it will be because the dollar has ceased to be valuable.

Basically, a bet on VTSAX is underpinned by faith in the dollar. If either one crashes the other is worthless.

link