[CuriousSkeptic]

First if all, thanks for that argument, haven’t considered the math in this perspective before. Will need to let this simmer a bit.

One immediate flaw though, you starting premise is that the current revenue is needed to break even on such a service. Is there an argument to support this claim as well?

[Denzel]

I’d call it an assumption, not so much a flaw. :) We can make other assumptions.

To break even, Google would at least need to cover their expenses. Google had $200B in expenses for 2022, with a net profit of $50B. So, that won’t really change the math.

Especially when we consider the fact that the take-rate would be much less than 100%. Maybe 5-10% is a fair take-rate assumption? (Seems fair since YouTube has roughly 50M paid subscribers on 1B MAUs, 5%, from the public data I’m seeing.)

At 5-10% take-rate, the service would cost 10-20x more to break even ($50-$100/month on average) which would be a nonstarter for the global middle class and lower.

One could make the argument then for Google to lower its costs in an effort to lower the consumer’s price, but then we must realize this runs opposite of innovation. Investment is necessary for innovation, and profits are necessary for investment. Without profits, there’s no more innovation.