[JumpCrisscross]

You both make valid points. The JPMorgan memo's point is that a view on the economy is insufficient for reaching a view on the market. If we're heading into a recession, that doesn't necessarily mean stocks will fall. If we've rounded the bottom, it doesn't mean stocks will rise. More pointedly, it's asking its clients not to sell even while it predicts a recession.

The Seeking Alpha piece doesn't support your argument. Returns one year post peak unemployment are good because valuations at peak unemployment are in their trough. The correlation drives the effect. The article could be summed up as buy when the market is low / unemployment is high.

There is a real effect that comes from the stock market being forward looking and the labor market backwards [1]. When unemployment goes up, markets go down, and that's a problem for forced sellers.

[1] https://research.upjohn.org/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1131...