[dirtyid]

IMO population "collapse" or demographic "decline" not right lens for unevenly developed country with massive population and high import dependency especially in context of "relative power". TBH it's surface level PRC collapists narrative.

What will happen (by design or not) is PRC demographics is being "strategically optimized" with the greatest demographic uplift/upgrade in recorded history. Roughly replacing 2 low skilled, under-educated workers with 1 skilled worker with additional automation. Every ~10 years for the next few decades, PRC will be upgrading / swapping the human capita potential of 1 Nigeria for 1 Japan, it's less people, but much more productive people. With PRC pop base effect this is still multiple more educated labour pool per year than US or other blocs can generate with immigration, and 100s of million more in net talent. Less people also alleviates import dependency, PRC with 1B (400M less) people would have substantially more strategic space to operate. It works towards close relative power potential. CCP wants to smooth out the pyramid with more births for better managed transition, which structurally/culturally PRC with some of the highest house hold savings rate and minimal expectation for safety net is positioned to weather, but long term PRC comprehensive national power is best improved by having less net people, with more % skilled people.

[cman1444]

I think this is a pretty optimistic take. I know there's a constant barrage of articles these days about the demise of China, but it's pretty hard to make the case that such a drastic decline in population is a good thing for their economy or geopolitical power.

Yes the Chinese population is becoming more skilled, but I think you're underestimating how much of a drag on the economy and aging population is. Old people don't innovate and require much more healthcare spending. They also cause heavy burdens on their children/grandchildren who must take care of them (see the 4-2-1 family structure).

There's also a lot less juice to squeeze out of urbanizing the population which is what drove a lot of GDP growth in the past few decades. About 65 percent of the population is urban now and the rate is starting to level off.

[dirtyid]

Or just not that pessimistic.

> pretty hard to make the case

It's easy when drastic decline in population leaves behind a still massive country, with more productive potential and less security vunerabilities - PRC's future strategic posture will improve with respect to US relative to where PRC is now. PRC pop projection is 1.4B to 800M by 2100 in geography can barely sustain current 1.4B (1/3 of country is desert, 1/3 is plateau), with central gov working over drive to free agricultural resources in crowded 1/3 that's left. 800M is still an incredible amount of people for internal market and global competition. If higher % of population becomes educated/skilled over generations that in aggregate PRC will have more skilled labour pool with 800M than current 1.4B, then IMO she would be significantly better positioned geopolitically. It's still 200M more brains / bodies than US pop projection in 2100. 800M with current electrification efforts is PRC with feasible energy and calorie security, and combined with hammering automation at current rate, much more productive capacity.

>underestimating, urbanization

First important to recognize PRC currently has 600M+ of excess, relatively unproductive mouths that's taking up already scarce resources. Cohort skews old, are undereducated, unskilled - the ones left behind by modernization. The PRC demographic decline narrative vastly overestimates how much innovation / productivity this cohort of aging out demographics were / are capable of. ~600M in informal economy making subsistent tier ~2000 USD per year, bluntly they're excess people that doesn't substantively contribute to development let alone drag on economy by being even less productive when they retire, assuming they can. 100s of millions are already economic drag by merely living - part of reason why SOEs are so inefficient, or Chinese agriculture so labour intensive (200M+ farmers) when PRC only really needs 1/50th that amount with mechanized equipment, is to maintain 100Ms of make work jobs for folks that simply can't be integrated into modern economy. They're being replaced by new gens who can. Since 2000s education reforms, PRC has been generating 10-20 years worth of pre 2000 talent per year. They're the one's doing the high tier innovating and growth. Really look at SKR, JP, TW, all have grown developed to advanced economies while having terminal tier TFR simply by new generations being disproportionatedly educated / skilled. Even the economic case for integrating / urbanizing these unproductive corhorts are poor, urbanization drives growth when you're clustering productive people. Real reason to herd them into cities is short / medium term, state needs to consolidate land to improve food security, because again, too many mouths.

> healthcare, dependency ratios,

PRC has one of the highest home ownership / house hold savings rates, elders from poverty era culturally know they need to largely support themselves and there's little expectation for comprehensive safety net. Western analysis seems to project expectation that PRC would be crushed by welfare burdens like currently in west with typically onerous welfare systems with increasingly poor long term prospects, the reality is, most Chinese will simply make do with very little state support. Like most of humanity throughout history. PRC will have to accept life expectancy in high 70s (about US level) vs pouring in resources to reach low / mid 80s. Old also knows how to "eat bitter". That said there's plenty of room to up current 6% of GDP healthcare spending.

Sizable % of single kids will get dragged into support family, but this is where income disparity mitigates issue because burdens between rich (educated/skilled) and poor will be different. Folks doing strategic / important work that advances country up value chain and make decent money likely got their because they're priveleged and likely receiving end of support, or they weren't which means their high income will stretch far assisting family back in tier 3/4+ cities. These folks aren't going to be quitting fancy jobs to caretake. They'll pay for help or if it's anything like hollowed out country side where youth left, old people take care of each other. PRC still has lot of communal cultural elements that makes these kind of grass root social systems possible (also see how people organized for zero covid). Burden is going to be disproportionately shifted on that massive underclass, who again bluntly, don't substantively contribute to development / or the components that will increase national power. Really not too different from west. 1% does very well, top few quartiles do well, rest struggles. There's also considerations like when the 4-2 dies, multiple inheritences will go to the 1, and there's prediction of consumption and baby boom when resources eventually concentrate, which will be in the already affluent, talented and productive cohorts. Big reason PRC is having problem pivoting into consumption economy is savings redirected for nest eggs.