[dirtyid]

>may be a very good bet

Trend last few years is PRC closing gap and approaching parity in indicators like GDP (already exceeded by PPP), % of global gdp / trade, science and innovation indexes, value chain upgrades etc. Even PRC military development and diplomacy is sufficient to get countries hedge / not commit to US alignment, which was unthinkable 10+ years ago. IMO US will find it difficult to maintain relative "lead" when, in the words of state department, "China is the only country with the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to seriously challenge" US order. That said, I think US has headroom via dictating economic and geopolitics within her relatively wealthy bloc and grow at the expense of others.

>It is unknown whether the CCP can survive any meaningful slowdown in growth and whether much of the growth of the last 10-15 years (enormous empty cities) was substantive or useful at all.

Western fixation with PRC real estate waste as proxy indicator of China (econ) collapse is particularly stupid. It's like suggesting US who spends ~20% of GDP on healthcare (approximately PRC real estate) with suboptimal result is spinning development wheels. Same with PRC wasting a few trillion in suboptimal real estate when significant (majority) resources being invested to bring up other (above) indictators that has substantively contributed more to PRC "comprehensive national power". Like US isn't initiating unprecented PRC containment policies because of a bunch of empty of housing units.