[scarface74]

The “average” investor gets paid cash and not in stock.

The public tech company employee has less to invest because a large portion of their income is in stock.

The private tech company employee is screwed because statistically, they have equity that won’t amount to shit in a bull market let alone a bear market.

[bunabhucan]

The average investor includes people who lose their jobs during downturns.

[scarface74]

What’s the unemployment rate - right now?

[loeg]

> The “average” investor gets paid cash and not in stock.

Not if they're unemployed, which is more likely in down markets.

[majormajor]

The "average" investor is in jobs less hit by typical recession/down market impacts, since the odds of a hospitality worker or barista having a retirement account in the first place is much lower than the odds of a white collar employee.

[Retric]

The point of comparison would be average reduction in investment vs average reduction in stock price. It’s true people invest less, but stocks take much larger drops than the reduction in the workforce.

[scarface74]

We have an existence proof that the stock market being down is not correlated with widespread unemployment

[tunesmith]

I found a woman who is taller than a man, which is an existence proof that being a woman is not correlated with being shorter than men.

[scarface74]

“Markets are not the economy”

https://www.jpmorgan.com/wealth-management/wealth-partners/i...

[roperj]

Are you arguing that the stock market is not correlated with unemployment? That’s a weird and plain stupid hill to die on because anybody can disprove it with 3 seconds of googling.

[kmonsen]

It might be a stupid hill to die on that general statement, but currently we have a falling stock market with very little unemployment which is part of the reason for the inflation.

[feet]

So why don't you disprove it?

[scarface74]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170913-unemployment-rate-a...

> An inverse relationship between level of unemployment and forward stock market returns. In the current quintile (2.5% to 4.4% unemployment), the average S&P 500 return over the following year is 5.6% versus and average of 12.7% in all periods. The best returns historically have come after periods of high unemployment

[Godel_unicode]

So far, in this one specific downturn, sure. There is however a strong historical correlation between market downturns and widespread unemployment.

[scarface74]

https://blog.tornado.com/the-stock-market-is-not-the-economy...

[Godel_unicode]

That’s not responsive to what I said. It’s a snappy one liner though, so I guess cool?

[scarface74]

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4170913-unemployment-rate-a...

> An inverse relationship between level of unemployment and forward stock market returns. In the current quintile (2.5% to 4.4% unemployment), the average S&P 500 return over the following year is 5.6% versus and average of 12.7% in all periods. The best returns historically have come after periods of high unemployment

[triceratops]

And in April 2020, we also had proof that the stock market being up isn't correlated with widespread employment.